摘要
TheNorthChinaPlain(NCP)isthemostimportantfoodgrainproducingareainChinaandhassufferedfromseriouswatershortages.Tocapturevariationwateravailability,itisnecessarytohaveananalysisofchangingtrendsinprecipitation.Thisstudy,basedondailyprecipitationdatafrom47representativestationsinNCPrecordspassedthehomogeneitytest,analyzedthetrendandamplitudeofvariationinmonthly,seasonalandannualprecipitation,annualmaximumcontinuousno-raindays,annualraindays,rainfallintensity,andrainfallextremesfrom1960to2007,usingtheMannKendall(M-K)testandSen’sslopeestimator.Itwasfoundthatmonthlyprecipitationinwinterhadasignificantincreasingtrendinmostparts,whilemonthlyprecipitationinJulytoSeptembershowedadecreasingtrendinsomepartsofNCP.Nosignificantchangingtrendwasfoundfortheannual,dryandwetseasonprecipitationandrainfallextremesinthemajorityofNCP.Asignificantdecreasingtrendwasdetectedforthemaximumno-raindurationandannualraindaysinthemajorpartofNCP.ItwasconcludedthatthechangingtrendofprecipitationinNCPhadanapparentseasonalandregionalpattern,i.e.,precipitationshowedanobviousincreasingtrendinwinter,butadecreasingtrendintherainyseason(JulytoSeptember),andthechangingtrendwasmoreapparentinthenorthernpartthaninthesouthernandmiddleparts.Thisimpliesthatwithglobalwarming,seasonalvariationofprecipitationinNCPtendstodeclinewithanincreasingofprecipitationinwinterseason,andadecreasinginrainyseason,particularlyinthesub-humidnorthernpart.
出版日期
2012年06月16日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
