摘要
Theaimofthispaperistodevelopamulti-periodeconomicmodeltointerprethowthepeoplebecomeoverconfidentbyabiasedlearningthatpeopletendtoattributethesuccesstotheirabilitiesandfailurestootherfactors.TheauthorssupposethattheinformedtraderdoesnotknowthedistributionoftheprecisionofhisprivatesignalandupdateshisbeliefonthedistributionoftheprecisionofhisknowledgebyBayer'srule.Theinformedtradercaneventuallyrecognizethevalueoftheprecisionofhisknowledgeafteranenoughlongtimebiasedlearning,butthevalueisoverestimatedwhichleadshimtobeoverconfident.Furthermore,basedonthedefinitionontheluckiertraderwhosucceedsthesametimesbuthasthelargervarianceoftheknowledge,theauthorsfindthattheluckiertheinformedtraderis,themoreoverconfidenthewillbe;thesmallerthebiasedlearningfactoris,themoreoverconfidenttheinformedtraderis.Theauthorsalsoobtainalinearequilibriumwhichcanexplainsomeanomaliesinfinancialmarkets,suchasthehighobservedtradingvolumeandexcessvolatility.
出版日期
2018年06月16日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
