摘要
Heatcontentoftheupperlayerabovethe20℃isotherminthetropicalPacificOceanisestimatedbyusingtheseatemperaturedatasetwitharesolution2°latitude×5°longitude(1980～1993)forthewaterdepths(every10m)from0mto400m,anditstemporalandspatialvariabilitiesareanalyzed.(1)ThetemporalvariabilityindicatesthatthetotalheatintheupperlayeroftheequatorialPacificOceanischaracterizedbytheinterannualvariability.Thetimeseriesoftheequatorialheatanomaly5monthsleadthatoftheElNinoindexatthebestpositivelagcorrelationbetweenthetwo,andtheformer13monthslagbehindthelatterattheirbestnegativelagcorrelation.ThereforetheequatorialheatcontentcanbeusedasabetterpredictorthantheElNinoindexforawarmorcoldevent.Inaddition,itisalsofoundthatlessheatanomalyintheequatorcorrespondstothestrongerwarmeventsintheperiod(1980～1993)andmuchmoreheatwasaccumulatedinthe4yearsincluding1992/1993ENSO(1989～1993)thanthe4yearsincluding1982/1983ENSO(1980～1983);(2)Thespatialvariabilityindicatesthattheareawiththehighestlagcorrelationamongthegridsmovesinananti-clockwisecircleinthenortherntropicalPacificOceanwithin4yearsperiodandinaclockwisecircleinthesoutherntropicalPacificOcean.Thisresultprovidesscientificevidenceforthequasi-cycletheoryofElNinoevents.
出版日期
2003年02月12日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
