简介:Aprobabilisticriskassessmentprocedureisdevelopedwhichcanpredictrisksofexplosiveblastdamagetobuiltinfrastructure,andwhencombinedwithlife-cyclecostanalysis,theprocedurecanbeusedtooptimiseblastmitigationstrategies.Thepaperfocusesonwindowglazingsincethisisaload-capacitysystemwhich,whensubjectedtoblastloading,hascausedsignificantdamageandinjurytobuildingoccupants.Structuralreliabilitytechniquesareusedtoderiveblastreliabilitycurvesforannealedandtoughenedglazingsubjectedtoexplosiveblastforavarietyofthreatscenarios.Theprobabilisticanalysesincludetheuncertaintiesassociatedwithblastmodelling,glazingresponseandglazingfailurecriteria.Damagerisksarecalculatedforanindividualwindowandforwindowsinthefacadeofamulti-storeycommercialbuilding.Thepapershowsanillustrativeexampleofhowthisinformation,whencombinedwithrisk-baseddecision-makingcriteria,canbeusedtooptimiseblastmitigationstrategies.